Are robots coming for your job?<\/p>\n
Although technology has long affected the labor force, recent advances in artificial intelligence and robotics are heightening concerns about automation replacing a growing number of occupations, including highly skilled or \u201cknowledge-based\u201d jobs.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Just a few examples: self-driving technology may eliminate the need for taxi, Uber and truck drivers, algorithms are playing a growing role in journalism, robots are informing consumers as mall greeters, and medicine is adapting robotic surgery and artificial intelligence to detect cancer and heart conditions.<\/p>\n
Of 700 occupations in the United States, 47 percent are at \u201chigh risk\u201d from automation, an Oxford University study concluded in 2013.<\/p>\n
A McKinsey study released this year offered a similar view, saying \u201cabout half\u201d of activities in the world\u2019s workforce \u201ccould potentially be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies.\u201d<\/p>\n
Still, McKinsey researchers offered a caveat, saying that only around five percent of jobs can be \u201cfully automated.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another report, by PwC this month, concluded that around a third of jobs in the United States, Germany and Britain could be eliminated by automation by the early 2030s, with the losses concentrated in transportation and storage, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade.<\/p>\n
But experts warn that such studies may fail to grasp the full extent of the risks to the working population.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe studies are underestimating the impact of technology \u2014 some 80 to 90 percent of jobs will be eliminated in the next 10 to 15 years,\u201d said Vivek Wadhwa, a tech entrepreneur and faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University in Silicon Valley.<\/p>\n
\u201cArtificial intelligence is moving a lot faster than anyone had expected,\u201d said Wadhwa, who is co-author of a forthcoming book on the topic. \u201cAlexa (Amazon\u2019s home hub) and Google Home are getting amazingly intelligent very fast. Microsoft and Google have demonstrated that AI can understand human speech better than humans can.\u201d<\/p>\n
Wadhwa calls the driverless car a \u201cmetaphor\u201d for the future of labor and a sign of a major shift.<\/p>\n
Warnings of dire social consequences from automation have also come from the likes of the physicist Stephen Hawking and tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, among others.<\/p>\n
Hebrew University of Jerusalem historian Yuval Harari writes in his 2017 book, \u201cHomo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow\u201d that technology will lead to \u201csuperfluous people\u201d as \u201cintelligent non-conscious algorithms\u201d improve.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs algorithms push humans out of the job market,\u201d he writes, \u201cwealth and power might become concentrated in the hands of the tiny elite that owns the all-powerful algorithms, creating unprecedented social and political inequality.\u201d<\/p>\n
Harari points to the Oxford study, estimating a high probability of job loss to automation \u2014 cashiers (97 percent), paralegals (94 percent), bakers (89 percent) and bartenders (77 percent), for example.<\/p>\n
Others disagree.<\/p>\n
Boston University economist and researcher James Bessen dismisses alarmist predictions, contending that advances in technology generally lead to more jobs, even if the nature of work changes.<\/p>\n
His research found that the proliferation of ATM machines did not decrease bank tellers\u2019 employment in recent decades, and that automation of textile mills in the 19th century led to an increase in weaving jobs because it created more demand.<\/p>\n
\u201cRobots can replace humans in certain tasks but don\u2019t entirely replace humans,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
But he acknowledged that automation \u201cis destroying a lot of low-skill, low wage jobs, and the new jobs being created need higher skills.\u201d<\/p>\n
Former president Barack Obama\u2019s council of economic advisors also warned last year that most jobs paying less than $20 an hour \u201cwould come under pressure from automation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Although the net impact of robots remains unclear, tech leaders and others are already debating how to deal with the potential job displacement.<\/p>\n
Microsoft founder Bill Gates said last month that he supports a \u201crobot tax,\u201d an idea floated in Europe, including by a socialist presidential candidate in France.<\/p>\n
But Bessen, a former fellow at Harvard\u2019s Berkman Center, said taxing robots could be counterproductive.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou don\u2019t want to be taxing the machines because they enable people to earn higher wages,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you tax machines, you will slow the beneficial side of the process.\u201d<\/p>\n
Peter Diamandis, chairman of the X Prize Foundation for technical innovation and founder of the Silicon Valley think-tank Singularity University, is among those calling for a \u201cuniversal basic income\u201d to compensate people for job losses.<\/p>\n
Offering income guarantees \u201cwill be one of many tools empowering self-actualization at scale,\u201d he said in a blog post, arguing that automation will allow people \u201cto follow their passions, be more creative.\u201d<\/p>\n
But Wadhwa says the problems run deeper and will require more creative solutions.<\/p>\n
\u201cA basic income won\u2019t solve the social problems of joblessness because people\u2019s identity revolves around our jobs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven if we have enough food and energy, we have to deal with the social disruption that\u2019s coming. We need a much broader discussion.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bessen says reversing the trends of the past decades, where high-skilled jobs gain at the expense of others, pose a \u201cbig challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s entirely possible we can meet the challenge,\u201d he said. \u201cBut the evidence in the past 20 years is that things are moving in the wrong direction.\u201d\u2014AFP<\/p>\n
Image: Alamy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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